Euro Touches 1.45 After FOMC

The Fed acknowledged that growth has picked up in the third quarter and warned that the recent increases in energy and commodity prices could put renewed upward pressure on inflation. However at the same time, they said that the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The price action in the markets today suggests that traders do not believe today’s rate cut will be the Fed’s last. In fact, PIMCO’s Bill Gross told CNBC shortly after the rate decision that further cuts are needed for growth. According to the tone of the FOMC statement, the Fed is in no rush to cut rates, but they do leave the door open for further easing should it be needed. Interestingly enough, the most profound US dollar weakness has been against the commodity currencies. Gold broke $800 and oil futures hit $95 a barrel in after hours trading. Against the Euro, British pound and Japanese Yen, the dollar ended the US trading session only slightly lower than its pre-FOMC levels. With non-farm payrolls due in less than 48 hours, further dollar weakness could be limited. Private sector payrolls increased 106,000 last month according to ADP. This was much stronger than expected and suggests that non-farm payrolls could be as high as 125k in the month of October.

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